Berlin: The German population could decline by nearly 10 million over the next five decades, falling to around 75 million by 2070 as the baby boomer generation is succeeded by smaller age cohorts, according to the Federal Statistics Office.
The latest population forecast predicts that one in four Germans will be over 67 within a decade. By 2038, nearly 21 million people, or 27 percent of the population, will have reached pension age.
The report underscores the growing challenges faced by businesses struggling with severe labor shortages, as well as policymakers contending with a populist backlash over immigration. The nativist Alternative for Germany party has gained traction in many polls amid these demographic concerns.
Germany, along with Italy, is already among Europe’s most aged nations. The population forecast highlights increasing pressure on social welfare systems. Currently, there are 33 pensioners for every 100 working-age people. Under a worst-case scenario, that ratio could rise to 61 per 100 by 2070.
2035 wird jede vierte Person in Deutschland 67 Jahre oder älter sein. Zum Vergleich: Im Jahr 2024 war nur jede fünfte Person im Rentenalter ab 67 Jahren. Zu diesem Ergebnis kommen alle Varianten der 16. koordinierten #Bevölkerung|svorausberechnung. https://t.co/bM59V1yVPz pic.twitter.com/SbYnKqZ5sx
— Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) December 11, 2025
Karsten Lammer, head of the population department at the statistics office, said the ratio would leave fewer than two workers contributing to each pensioner, significantly straining public finances.
The report notes that Germany’s population would grow under only two of the 27 scenarios considered, both relying on high immigration levels combined with rising birth rates.
The demographic shift presents long-term challenges for economic growth, labor markets, and the sustainability of Germany’s social security and healthcare systems, making reform a priority for policymakers in the coming decades.
