New York: American consumers are likely to face increased chocolate prices this Halloween, as global cocoa costs have more than doubled since early 2024, according to a report released by Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute.
Although wholesale cocoa prices have eased slightly from late 2024 peaks, manufacturers continue to pass on increased costs to shoppers. Many confectionery companies are scaling back seasonal product lines and resorting to ‘shrinkflation’– reducing portion sizes while keeping retail prices unchanged, the report said.
The dramatic rise in cocoa prices stems from severe supply disruptions in West Africa, which produces roughly 70 percent of the world’s cocoa. Heavy rains in late 2023 led to widespread black pod disease and crop rot, followed by El Niño–induced droughts in 2024 that worsened the spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus disease.
According to the International Cocoa Organization (ICO), global cocoa output fell 12.9 percent year-on-year to 4.37 million metric tons in the last crop season, creating a supply deficit of about 494,000 metric tons. Production in the Ivory Coast, the world’s leading cocoa producer, dropped 25.3 percent, while Ghana’s output fell by 31.3 percent.
Wells Fargo noted that the outlook remains challenging, with preliminary estimates from exporters suggesting a further 10 percent decline in production for the 2025/26 crop year beginning this month across the four main West African producers.
“It is likely that cocoa prices will remain high at least through the next crop year ending September 2026, given the current record cocoa supply deficit,” the report said.
Adding to cost pressures are new tariffs recently imposed on major cocoa and cocoa-product suppliers to the United States, including Ecuador, the Ivory Coast, the Dominican Republic, and Ghana. These reciprocal tariffs, ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent, are now levied on imports of cocoa beans and byproducts such as cocoa butter and powder. With cocoa grown only in tropical regions, US importers and chocolate manufacturers must absorb these higher import costs.
