India: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) upgraded its monsoon forecast, predicting that India is likely to receive 106 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June to September season.
This marks a slight increase from the earlier estimate of 105 percent, placing the seasonal rainfall in the above-normal category. The forecast comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. The LPA for the monsoon season, calculated over the 1971-2020 period, stands at 87 cm.
Breaking down the regional outlook, the IMD expects central and peninsular India to experience above-normal rainfall, while northwest India is forecasted to receive normal rainfall. Meanwhile, the northeastern region may see below-normal precipitation this monsoon season.
Encouragingly, the monsoon core zone, areas heavily dependent on seasonal rains for agriculture is projected to receive above-normal rainfall, offering a positive sign for farmers and the wider economy.
Advance of Southwest Monsoon:
❖ Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Maharashtra, remaining parts of Karnataka, most parts of Telangana, remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh, some parts of Chhattisgarh & Odisha, remaining parts of westcentral Bay of… pic.twitter.com/zgNI6hHTYS
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) May 28, 2025
The monsoon contributes nearly 70 percent of India’s annual rainfall, making it a critical factor for agricultural productivity and rural livelihoods.
The monsoon season has made an early arrival, touching the Kerala coast eight days ahead of schedule and rapidly advancing across southern India. It has already reached Mumbai about two weeks early and is expected to cover Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh soon.
IMD Director General Dr. M. Mohapatra noted that, “Since there will be above-normal rains in June, the number of heatwave days in June is likely to be below normal. We are not expecting many heatwave days in June now.”
Additionally, the IMD warned of a new cyclonic circulation forming in the northwest Bay of Bengal. This system is expected to bring rain to Odisha and West Bengal over the next three days.
