US: NASA is intensifying its focus on asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock that has been classified as a potential ‘city killer’ due to its increasing probability of striking Earth between 2032 and 2033.
To assess the risk, NASA will use the James Webb Space Telescope to study the asteroid’s characteristics and trajectory.
First spotted in December 2024, the asteroid’s impact probability initially raised concerns among astronomers. While the European Space Agency (ESA) initially estimated the risk at 1 percent, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory later reduced the probability to approximately 0.004 percent, effectively ruling out a significant threat to Earth in 2032.
While the most likely scenario remains a harmless pass through the solar system, scientists continue to monitor the asteroid due to uncertainties regarding its exact size and trajectory.
The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped from 2.8% to 0.16%.
Thanks to new observations, Earth is now at the edge of our shrinking ‘uncertainty window.’
If this trend continues, the risk may soon reach 0%. pic.twitter.com/2yoeLaCLVO
— European Space Agency (@esa) February 21, 2025
Scientists have estimated the asteroid’s diameter to be between 40 and 90 meters. ESA officials emphasize that understanding its precise size is crucial, as the impact threat posed by a 40-meter asteroid is vastly different from that of a 90-meter one.
To refine risk assessments, NASA and ESA will conduct further observations using the James Webb Space Telescope in March and May 2025.
Additional tracking efforts are planned for 2028 when the asteroid will once again become visible.
The most likely outcome is that the asteroid will pass harmlessly through the solar system, but the scientific community continues to monitor 2024 YR4 closely, working to ensure preparedness in the unlikely event of an impact scenario.
