Sydney: More than 1.5 million Australians living in coastal areas will be at risk from rising sea levels by 2050, according to the nation’s first National Climate Risk Assessment.
The landmark report, released by the federal government, warns that no community will be immune from the “cascading, compounding and concurrent” threats of a worsening climate, including more intense floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves and bushfires.
The assessment, prepared by the Australian Climate Service and the Department of Climate Change, models three global warming scenarios – above 1.5C, 2C and 3C.
Australia has already surpassed the 1.5C threshold, the report notes. At 3C of warming, health systems will be under severe strain:
- Heat-related deaths in Sydney could increase by more than 400 percent.
- Melbourne could see fatalities nearly triple.
- Darwin faces a projected rise of over 420 percent in heat-related deaths.
The challenges before Australia are serious. Our climate is changing.
The Australian Government is strengthening its climate change response.
Our National Adaptation Plan sets out a path forward to help Australia adapt.
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— DCCEEW (@DCCEEW) September 15, 2025
“Australians are already living with the consequences of climate change today, but every degree of warming we prevent now will help future generations avoid the worst impacts in years to come,” said Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen.
The report highlights the vulnerability of coastal populations, warning that the number of communities classified as being in high and very high-risk areas will rise sharply in the coming decades.
- By 2050, more than 1.5 million people could be exposed to flooding, erosion, and permanent inundation.
- By 2090, this number may exceed 3 million if population levels remain unchanged.
Northern Australia, remote communities, and the outer suburbs of major cities are identified as particularly at risk. The economic toll is projected to be staggering. Even under a 1.5C scenario, direct damages from extreme weather events could reach A$40 billion annually by 2050.
Other key findings include:
- Property values could fall by A$611 billion by 2050, and A$770 billion by 2090.
- Lost workdays due to extreme heat may total 2.7 million annually by mid-century.
- Severe flooding and bushfires will worsen water quality and disrupt ecosystems, agriculture, and critical infrastructure.
“One thing that is very clear from this climate assessment is that our whole country has a lot at stake. The cost of inaction will always outweigh the cost of action,” Bowen stressed.
Alongside the risk assessment, the Albanese government released a national adaptation framework, aimed at strengthening community resilience.
The timing is significant: this week, Canberra is set to announce its 2035 emissions reduction target, an updated net zero strategy, and detailed pathways for six major sectors of the economy.
The report’s release follows weeks of delay, prompting accusations that the government had sought to bury findings described by insiders as intense and scary. The Greens, who secured a parliamentary inquiry into the delay, will hold their first hearing on Tuesday.
