London: Europe is heading into a tighter potato market after extreme heat and drought during the summer are expected to cut production by more than 3.5 million tonnes across Great Britain, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
An analysis released by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates that weather-related losses across the five markets could be worth between €498 million and €818 million ($572 million-$940 million).
Around 3.1 million tonnes of the projected loss is expected across Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, with Great Britain accounting for the remainder.
The ECIU estimates that potato yields have fallen by 13 percent in France, 21 percent in Belgium, 10 percent in Germany and 7 percent in the Netherlands compared with five-year averages.
In some cases, industry estimates indicate yield declines of up to 20 percent. The figures are based on grower test digs, national statistics and industry estimates and are not yet a final harvest assessment.
Heat and drought weigh on potato crops
Potatoes are particularly vulnerable to prolonged heat and water shortages. Persistent high temperatures and dry conditions during the summer reduced both yields and tuber size in several major producing regions.
In Belgium, the world’s largest exporter of frozen fries, the Fontane variety, widely used by processors, was yielding about 32 tones per hectare at the end of August, around 30 percent below last year’s level. Only about half of the crop was reported to be above the 50mm size preferred by processors.
The wider weather conditions have also affected other summer crops. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre said in its August crop-monitoring report that persistent heat and exceptional water deficits had sharply reduced summer crop prospects, with EU-wide yields for summer crops forecast to be up to 14 percent below their five-year averages.
The weather-related losses come on top of a significant reduction in the area planted with potatoes this year.
European growers reduced planting after last year’s large harvest created a surplus and pushed free-market prices sharply lower.
According to the ECIU, the smaller planted area represents another potential loss of about 3.6 million tons of production compared with what could have been harvested if this year’s acreage had matched previous levels and yields had remained at five-year averages.
The combination of reduced acreage and weaker yields could result in one of the smallest potato harvests on record in the European Union, the ECIU said.
Potato prices surge
The tighter supply is already being reflected in wholesale and processing markets.
In Belgium, free-market potato prices have risen from almost zero in April to more than €200 per ton. German processing potatoes have climbed from about €15 per ton in June to around €240 per ton. In Britain, processors are reportedly paying more than £300 per ton to secure supplies, compared with about £180 per ton in February.
The supply squeeze could increase costs for food processors and eventually feed through to consumers, particularly in products such as frozen fries and other processed potato foods.
The ECIU said the latest losses come after several years of increasingly challenging weather conditions for European agriculture. Industry representatives have also called for greater investment in water management, including water storage during wetter periods and irrigation capacity during dry summers.
The latest figures underline the growing exposure of Europe’s potato sector to both market volatility and extreme weather, with growers facing the additional pressures of higher operating costs and uncertain production conditions.
