New Delhi: Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific could reach record levels in October-December 2026 as El Niño strengthens, potentially influencing global weather patterns, ecosystems and economies, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated.
According to the WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the event is expected to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December and persist through February 2027.
It is likely to contribute to above-average temperatures across large parts of the world while shifting rainfall patterns and increasing the risk of droughts and floods in some regions.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
Speaking at the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok, Saulo explained that El Niño does not generate additional heat but releases heat stored beneath the ocean surface. She said the current event could have a significant impact because ocean temperatures are already at record levels, leaving more heat available to enter the atmosphere.
El Niño will continue to intensify ahead of its forecast peak in December. Sea-surface temperatures in central & eastern tropical Pacific are set to increase to record levels. Above-average temperatures globally & shift in rainfall patterns are likely.
↪️ https://t.co/RkalrbYa4Q https://t.co/JkXBOhtYD7— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) October 8, 2026
The WMO’s forecast draws on a consensus among 13 national and international climate centres, using real-time observations from ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes coordinated through the organisation.
The Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, rose from an average of 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in June 2026 to 2.5 degrees Celsius in August.
For October-December, the seasonal average anomaly is forecast to reach around 3.7 degrees Celsius, with El Niño expected to peak around December. If realised, this would exceed the previous record of 2.6 degrees Celsius recorded during November 2015-January 2016, according to the WMO.
The Indian Ocean is also expected to influence seasonal weather conditions. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can significantly affect rainfall across the Indian Ocean region, is forecast to peak in October before weakening. Its seasonal anomaly for October-December is projected to be around 0.5 degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic are expected to remain above normal, adding another factor to the seasonal climate outlook.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update tracks major climate drivers that influence seasonal temperature and rainfall patterns, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole and tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures. It complements the organisation’s quarterly El Niño/La Niña Update.
Editorial note: Before publication, verify the forecast figures and record-level claim against the original WMO update. The projected Niño 3.4 anomaly of 3.7°C is unusually high, and the claim that it would be the highest since observations began should be confirmed against the official release.
